Stochastic Model of Ships Traffic Capacity and Congestion – Validation by Real Ships Traffic Data on Świnoujście – Szczecin Waterway

Lucjan Gucma 1, Andrzej Bąk 2, Sylwia Sokołowska 3

1Maritime University of Szczecin, Poland

2Maritime University of Szczecin, Poland

3Maritime Office in Szczecin, Poland

DOI: 10.1515/aon-2017-0013


Paper presents validation of previously created stochastic ships traffic stream model by
the real data of ships delays on Świnoujście — Szczecin waterway. The model is mostly
based on Monte Carlo methodology. The model is microscopic which means that each
ship’s model is treated as separate object possessing given attributes. As the main parameter of presented validation total waiting (delay) time of ships have been applied. The time
of ships delays was possessed from Szczecin VTS centre and compared with the model


ship traffic stream model, waterway capacity, ship intensity, congestion, ship intensity, ship traffic streams.


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